March closes the run that started in October. The north-west groundswell is still arriving with the period the reefs need, and the trade winds have not begun, so the pattern of the winter holds for four more weeks.
The water is at 18°C, tied with February for the coldest of the year, and the air has started to move ahead of it. What changes towards the end of the month is consistency rather than size: the Atlantic lows begin tracking further north, and the gaps between swells get longer. That is the shape of April arriving early, and it is the reason March is the last month you can book without watching a forecast first.

